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Typically, the National Football League's Coach of the Year award adheres to a simple formula. It frequently serves as a form of mea culpa. We regret we got wrong your team in our pre-campaign predictions.

Theoretically, it's a direct line: the coach who orchestrated the biggest improvement wins the award. However, it creates an annual discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely honoring superior leadership or simply the greatest surprise.

But the current race is distinctly different. The pool of candidates is remarkably strong. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The league has been chaotic, with reigning conference winners fading and longtime underperformers ascending collectively. During an normal year, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the clear front-runner. Yet in such a turbulent and thrilling year, he's up against five other outstanding candidates.

Below is how the hypothetical vote could shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by signal-callers. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely corrected Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal system, Williams has been given the opportunity to demonstrate his special talent. Since Week 9, the Bears rank number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's prolonged dominance. With Johnson, Williams has become more decisive, far less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the gameplan rather than going rogue. It is an attack designed entirely in the coach's image: a physical ground attack, a consistent helping of play-action and a imaginative passing attack that frees wide-open targets all over the field. The QB has thrived. And when easy reads weren't available, he's been able to spin big plays out of broken plays.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a clear offensive philosophy. Virtually each bet – overhauling the offensive line, highlighting the tight ends, transforming Williams into a rhythm passer – has succeeded. That's uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who entered the organization with the level of hype Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no guarantees. Somehow, he has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive wizard but the type of leader that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

In a typical season, he would be the overwhelming favorite. But the current is not a typical season!

The area where his candidacy comes slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears currently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously inconsistent. Coaches can emphasise ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is legitimate. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several victories behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is in place for sustained success. But he falls just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable situation to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie leader who has masterminded a swift turnaround. Over the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete overall football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, he has nailed the intangibles stuff, which wasn't a certainty following his early press conference introduction and some of his preseason moves.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed their staff with the perfect staff blend of youth and veteran savvy, Coen bet on newbies. Starting with the leader on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That type of approach is exciting in theory, but frequently collapses in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a their job in real-time. But Coen has pulled the entire group and all elements into sync.

Following an initial strong start, there was a risk that the campaign would veer off the track. A mid-year setback caused the Jags stumbling again. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. He didn't. Rather, he simplified things. The offense stopped chasing home-run answers and started hunting sustainable ones. Coen refocused the attack around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are evident. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three seed. He receives the slightest knock in the rankings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year case has a hinge decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback move.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a new signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative play-caller might have ended the season in October. Instead, it defined it. Through the mid point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has regressed after that time, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, placing him just a single spot ahead of peers.

Still