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"I'll be sitting in this seat by 2027," Sir Keir Starmer declared, joking that if our discussion went well, he might invite the interviewer into his official residence for a follow-up talk in 2026.

There is never any time off for those in the top job. In the hour before our chat started, Sir Keir had been on the phone with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and trying to work out what on earth had occurred in Venezuela, where his key ally, US President Donald Trump, had recently launched a strike against and detained its leader, Nicolás Maduro.

Once the discussion, which was much longer than usual, had concluded, Maduro had been formally accused in New York.

A Reboot for the New Year

With the new year begins, Sir Keir seems to have had a kind of a revitalisation. Perhaps even just a bit of relaxation with his family at Chequers, the prime minister's rural getaway.

This appeared to have resulted in better spirits than at the saggy end of 2025, a dreadful political year for him.

Yet, are he and his allies kidding themselves if they reckon his political fate are poised to improve?

Internal Doubts

The grisly truth for the leader is that numerous of his fellow MPs believe he's ineffective at his job. A faction of them would sooner gamble and oust him in 2026.

But Starmer was dismissing such talk during our conversation on Saturday morning.

On several occasions he insisted he'd be "judged at the poll", arguing nobody would strip his term from him – despite the fact that the most effective strategy of stopping Nigel Farage and Reform UK entering No 10 could be for Labour to replace its leader.

"We are in the fight of our times and I intend to lead us," he declared.

The Spring Test

The challenge for the prime minister is that he will be assessed well ahead of then – in a huge set of elections in May across the UK. He attempted to argue, maybe excessively, that they are concerning who runs local authorities, and who runs the devolved administrations in Holyrood or Cardiff – and unrelated to Westminster.

True – up to a point. But even though he may not want to admit it, No 10 will be evaluated by those elections too.

Despite this, Sir Keir stating that there were no scenario under which he would step down, should a his MPs contested his leadership for the job, should those elections be very poor for Labour.

Predicting a Turnaround

He attempted to rationalise his unpopularity by saying the electorate was naturally impatient for things to change. He tried to convince the interviewer, and the public, that 2026 would be a change.

The economic situation would improve despite rising unemployment, he said, when strategies the government implemented during their first turbulent year began to show results.

• He committed to close asylum hotels before the current deadline of 2029, but he wouldn't set a firm date on that.
• He said too, with the caveat that it wasn't a done deal, that a settlement in Ukraine felt more likely now than at any time since Russia's comprehensive invasion.
• He disclosed for the first occasion that Western allies were now considering how to integrate US and European forces to provide security for Ukraine – to safeguard a possible peace.

His core point is that in 2026 the country will "reach a turning point".

Political Challenges

The prime minister may have spoken with renewed vitality than I've seen from him for a some time – calmer, maybe, with a longer slot to talk.

But despite facing demands from many directions for a bolder approach, with greater political vision, more vigour, more pace and more immediacy, his points were repeated ones.

When he finds himself in such significant political trouble, should he consider a different script?

No administration, and especially not one that has been struggling in the polls for many months, gets everything its own way.

Sir Keir's challenges are not only because government is difficult, but because he and his colleagues have made mistakes, including in the last few weeks.

Regrets and Risks

The PM admitted that he regretted saying he was "pleased" to welcome back the Egyptian-British activist Alaa Abd El Fattah to the UK after an backlash when comments he'd previously made – such as calls for Zionists and police to be killed – came to light.

Sir Keir attributed it to "procedures" for not catching what the activist had said before – a fancier way of saying not my fault.

And he is courting clear political perils as the year unfolds. His alliance with the US president acquires a new risk after Trump's intervention on Venezuela.

Based on years of interviewing Sir Keir Starmer, a former human rights lawyer who was against the war in Iraq, over his career, the notion he would be comfortable with such action seems far-fetched.

International Law and Brexit

He stated he was a "longtime champion of international law" but the public "just do not have the full picture at the moment".

Critics called for him to criticise the action before the interview. And the administration is likely to face more pressure to give an clear view in Parliament in the next few days.

There has also consistently been simmering pressure in the Labour party to revisit some of the results of Brexit.

The PM denies he's pursuing that, but his new specific pledge to integrate further with the European trading bloc – the giant economic European trading zone – will likely provoke protests that he is breaking his vow never to try to reverse the results that followed Brexit.

A decision to cosy up to more of the single market will satisfy some on his own side, but it is simple material for Reform and the Conservatives to