Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the political, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in academia but hardly any politicians or activists want to engage even with the basics. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the status quo. Each composes two essays that strive for neutrality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments range over identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government should determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has has valuable insights to gain from the alternative arguments."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
